The lynx effect: It's about time to reintroduce this shy predator

CHANGE happens. Species come and go. Survival is the exception. It is a safe bet that 99.9% of all plants and animals that ever existed are now extinct. Extinctions arise from many causes: meteorites, volcanic activity, climate change, disease and, for the past 50,000 years, from interactions with Homo sapiens. Biologists call this last one the ‘progress trap’: we get better and better at killing things—mammoths, say—until they disappear altogether and we lose a food source.

However, there is a difference between extinction and extirpation (where they have died out in one area, but survive elsewhere). Animals that have disappeared from the planet include aurochs, tarpans and mammoths and many apex predators, such as cave lions and sabertoothed cats. Three of Britain’s apex-predator casualties—the brown bear (which disappeared in Roman times), lynx (about AD700) and grey wolf (about 1700)— exist elsewhere. Almost unbelievably, Britain is now the largest country in the world without any large carnivores. The badger is now our biggest predator, followed by the fox.

An apex predator is a flesh-eating animal that sits at the top of the food chain and has no natural predators, apart, perhaps, from its rivals. It acts as a top-down control on the prey animals below, affecting their numbers and their behaviours, and, in turn, is reliant on the health of those populations. These days, unthreatened by anything above them, this group is generally thriving.

Why does all this matter? Aren’t we better off not sharing the landscape with animals that would kill us, our pets and our livestock? Perhaps, but more likely not. Ecosystems are circular in Nature, so there will always be consequences if a central part of that system is removed. One example is the eradication of sea otters on the US Pacific coast: it turned out that the otters were the control agent for the destructive local sea urchin that then set about denuding the coast of all remaining life including, inevitably, itself. Conversely, the reintroduction of timber wolves into America’s Yellowstone National Park, in 1995–96, led to the deer reverting to their natural state of ‘nervous browsing’ and allowed for the robust growth of willow along waterways. This, in turn, brought back the beaver.

The principles remain the same in Britain, despite this country being far more populated. One reason for the 62% loss of ground-nesting birds over the past 50 years has been the increased numbers of generalist predators, especially foxes and corvids, whereas a main driver of the 285% rise in the destructive muntjac deer across southern England since 1995 is the lack of an apex predator; short of stalkers and traffic, the muntjac has nothing to fear. Overall deer numbers in the UK are probably about two million now, at least twice what’s sustainable.

What are we to do? Reintroductions are feasible, as witnessed by the white-tailed eagle (in 1975), the red kite (1989) and the beaver (2009). The dilemma regarding apex predators is, practically, a simple one, even if it is otherwise fiendishly complex. We can’t reintroduce what has already become extinct; there are few ecosystem benefits in bringing back the brown bear and it is unthinkable that a government would have the courage to bring back the grey wolf. It comes down to the question of whether we are ready to welcome back the lynx.

The Eurasian lynx is a woodland animal, about 3ft long and weighing three stone, with a preference for abundant understorey plants to enable it to ambush prey, especially roe deer, and hide from humans. Highly secretive and almost impossible to find, they have enormous territories of 100sq km or more. The ecosystem services they offer include reducing problem populations, providing food for scavengers and supporting natural regeneration of forestry. (Remarkably, the reintroduction of the lynx in Sweden has led to long-term growth in ground-nesting bird numbers.) Lynx would never attack a human, but there is no question that they can kill sheep. It is there that the problem lies.

Causes of livestock deaths from wild predation is an inexact science, often depending on who is dispensing it, but research suggests it is small (ranging from zero to 0.03%), with the possible exception of Norway (at 0.7%), not least because lynx territories are so huge.

In Sweden, lynx killed an average of 145 sheep per year in 2012–16, representing about 0.03% of the national flock of 580,000; in Switzerland, the Czech Republic and France these figures were 0.01%, 0.02% and 0.02%, respectively—although their farming patterns are different from Britain. Each dead sheep is someone’s living and the experience is traumatic for the farmer concerned. The issue may be alleviated, by the use of ‘guardian animals’ (llamas and dogs) and other deterrents, such as scare tape and flashing lights. Compensation schemes need to be fair and consistent.

This is an emotionally charged debate, but the long-term choice comes down to what kind of country we want to live in. Business as usual where human exceptionalism will trump the needs of Nature? Or a new settlement where we learn once again to live alongside what has always been here? There are currently no plans for an official reintroduction of lynx, but perhaps it could be a modest contribution to a suite of problems. A formal trial could be a good place to start.

The missing lynx

• Lynx became extinct in the British Isles about 1,300 years ago, probably due to deforestation reducing their habitat and the availability of prey

• Preferring wooded areas, they are nocturnal, secretive and solitary, preying on the smaller deer species, but also rabbits, squirrels, foxes, livestock and pets

• With 50,000 lynx in the world, they are considered a species of least concern by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN)

• Some 15 reintroductions have been attempted in Europe; none is yet independently viable. Only one established population is increasing, in the Jura mountains on the French-Swiss border. A viable population is considered to need no fewer than 250 individuals, requiring an area at least the size of the Scottish Highlands

*Game & Wildlife Conservation Trust